Value chain · CLM-0375
Low confidence
The evidence behind this statement is thin, indirect or second-hand. Read it as a lead to check, not as a settled finding.
In plain terms
Converting Caltech's 2025 space solar power cost estimates onto the same basis as the other studies gives a huge range on its own: from over 2,600 pounds per megawatt-hour using only today's technology, down to about 23 pounds in the paper's most hopeful case, which it describes as what new design and manufacturing advances might make possible in 20 years.
The claim as recorded
Restating Caltech's three CSSPS technology tiers (777.8/9.4/3.8 US cents per kWh, ~USD2024, 2% discount rate) to 2024 GBP, 20-year life gives: "current" tier GBP2,647.6/MWh (3%) and GBP4,626.6/MWh (10%); "middle" tier GBP48.4/MWh (3%) and GBP84.6/MWh (10%); "asymptotic" tier GBP22.7/MWh (3%) and GBP39.6/MWh (10%).
Scope and limits
These designs are 76-181 MW average power, one to two orders of magnitude smaller than every other study in this comparison (~1.44-2 GW) -- not directly size-comparable without an unvalidated scaling adjustment (see CLM-0387). Middle/asymptotic tiers depend on a launch price (~128/~55 USD/kg) projected from a 2020 planning document, never observed at any date.
What it assumes
Asset life is an ASSUMED substitution using the paper's own "N2" rate-adjusted energy multiplier (7/11/13 years for current/middle/asymptotic), which is NOT stated by the source to be an asset-life term as such -- flagged as a material, source-specific uncertainty on every figure in this claim. Basis year ASSUMED as ~2024 (not stated outright by the source).
Where it comes from
This is the project's own working, shown in full:
restate-lcoe.py trace, CLM-0179-restate-current/middle/asymptotic sections.
Basis: GBP2024, 20-year asset life (ASSUMED proxy, see limits), 3% and 10% real discount rate
Related records
- Answers question
- QST-004 not published in this release
Cite this
energyaperture.com/c/clm-0375
CLM-0375, Energy Aperture, as of 2026-09.