Value chain · CLM-0179
In plain terms
This 2025 paper's own numbers show that with today's technology, their space solar power design would cost about $7.78 per kWh - far more expensive than any terrestrial option - and only becomes competitive (9.4 cents/kWh) if 10 years of assumed technology improvement and cost learning happen first.
The claim as recorded
Mizrahi et al.'s Table 3 benchmark gives three cost cases for their proposed distributed "CSSPS" design: "current" (today's technology, no further development) at overnight cost $487.2/W, capacity factor 69.9%, LCOE 777.8 cents/kWh (i.e. $7.778/kWh); "middle" (a 10-year technology-development and cost-learning forecast) at $8.4/W, capacity factor 81.7%, LCOE 9.4 cents/kWh; and "asymptotic" (a 20-year forecast) at $4.0/W, capacity factor 81.7%, LCOE 3.8 cents/kWh; the same table gives comparator figures including PV utility (LCOE 4.4 cents/kWh, CF 16.2%), onshore wind (3.3 cents/kWh, CF 36%) and large nuclear (18.2 cents/kWh, CF 93%).
Scope and limits
The "current" case is the paper's own first-of-a-kind, present-day cost estimate for their proposed (not-yet-built) architecture - it is a modelled estimate, not an achieved/deployed cost, since no such system has been built. Capacity factor figures (69.9%/81.7%) are modelled, not measured.
What it assumes
"Middle" and "asymptotic" cases assume 10 and 20 years respectively of technology maturation, manufacturing scaling, and launch-cost reduction (see CLM-0181) beyond today.
Where it comes from
"Table 3. Benchmark comparison for different energy sources... CSSPS, current: 487.2 [OC $/W] / 69.9 [CF %] / 777.8 [LCOE c/kWh]. CSSPS, middle: 8.4 / 81.7 / 9.4. CSSPS, asymptotic: 4.0 / 81.7 / 3.8. PV, utility: 0.8 / 16.2 / 4.4. Wind, onshore: 1.2 / 36.0 / 3.3. Nuclear, large: (6.2, 10.0) / 93.0 / 18.2." (PDF p.10-11).
Basis: USD, no stated price-year deflator (paper published June 2025, treat as ~2025 USD), USD cents/kWh and USD/W
Related records
- Answers question
- QST-037 not published in this release
Cite this
energyaperture.com/c/clm-0179
CLM-0179, Energy Aperture, as of 2025-06.
Connected records
Other published records linked to this one. A list, not a judgement.
- Also from SRC-006
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