Value chain · CLM-0181
In plain terms
The 9.4-cents and 3.8-cents per kWh figures both depend on launch prices that do not exist yet - they are extrapolated 10 and 20 years into the future from a historical cost-decline trend, using SpaceX's not-yet-finalised Starship costs and a design still based on today's Falcon 9 hardware costs.
The claim as recorded
The paper's launch cost model is built from "the format proposed by SpaceX for Starship" GEO transport (LEO insertion, refuel, transfer to GTO, transfer to GEO), with flight hardware costs based on "the current Falcon 9 upper stage," then reduced by "a logarithmic fit to historic launch cost data" projected forward 10 years (for the "middle" case) or 20 years (for the "asymptotic" case) to derive the launch costs feeding the LCOE figures in CLM-0179.
Scope and limits
No explicit $/kg figure is stated in the extracted text for this model (unlike SRC-021's and SRC-078's explicit per-kg figures) - this claim describes the METHOD, not a specific number, and should not be read as providing a $/kg data point for cross-source comparison.
What it assumes
Historic launch-cost decline trends continue linearly (in log space) for 10-20 more years; Starship achieves the cost structure SpaceX has proposed for GEO transport.
Where it comes from
"Launch costs were projected off of the format proposed by SpaceX for Starship GEO transport... The model projects the cost of flight hardware based on the current Falcon 9 upper stage. Launch cost prices were then reduced by a factor based on a logarithmic fit to historic launch cost data and projecting it forward the relevant number of years: 10 for middle and 20 for asymptotic." (PDF p.11-12).
Basis: USD, forecast basis, per kg not separately stated in body text extract (cost embedded in LCOE model)
Related records
- Answers question
- QST-003 not published in this release
Cite this
energyaperture.com/c/clm-0181
CLM-0181, Energy Aperture, as of 2025-06.
Connected records
Other published records linked to this one. A list, not a judgement.
- Also from SRC-006
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