Energy Aperture

Value chain · CLM-0286

In plain terms

A 2025 peer-reviewed study modelled space solar power inside a detailed model of Europe's future electricity system, using the more favourable of NASA's cost projections for the year 2050, the one that needs several improvements together. It found that one satellite design using mirrors (called RD1) could lower the total cost of Europe's power system by 7 to 15 percent and replace much of the wind and solar power otherwise needed, but only if its projected costs are actually achieved. A second design using flat panels (called RD2) came out too expensive to be worthwhile at its projected 2050 cost.

The claim as recorded

A peer-reviewed European-scale capacity-expansion and dispatch model (PyPSA-Eur based), applying NASA OTPS's 2050 cost and performance projections for two approximately 2 GW reference designs (heliostat-based RD1: 99.7% capacity factor; planar-based RD2: 60% capacity factor; both 30-year design life, 3% discount rate), finds RD1 can cut total European power-system cost by 7-15% and displace up to 80% of intermittent wind and solar if its projected 2050 capital cost (EUR2,915/kW) is met, whereas RD2 is described as "uneconomical at its forecast costs" (EUR3,701/kW); RD1 becomes complementary at approximately 14x and dominant at approximately 9x the projected 2050 solar PV capital cost, RD2 at approximately 9x and approximately 6x respectively. In the paper's baseline (near-term, 2020) case the same designs carry CapEx of EUR41,071/kW (RD1) and EUR62,336/kW (RD2), about 14 and 17 times their 2050 figures (our arithmetic), and the model selects neither. On Table 2's own figures, the paper's "2050" rows correspond to NASA's combined-improvements case (CLM-0124) and its "baseline" (near-term, 2020) rows to NASA's 2050 baseline (CLM-0123), both converted to euros (our arithmetic; see limits).

Scope and limits

Authors Xinyang Che (King's College London; Xi'an Jiaotong University), Lijun Liu (Xi'an Jiaotong University), Wei He (King's College London, corresponding author), verified from the paper's own title page. This is an academic energy-systems-modelling paper, not an ESA or EU institutional publication, and it does not independently re-derive SBSP hardware costs. It should not be read as independent verification of NASA's or any other study's launch-cost or capex assumptions; it inherits them without checking them. READ AGAINST THE JOULE VERSION OF RECORD, 2026-10-10. The figures here are the same in the preprint and in Joule: Joule's Table 2 repeats the preprint's Table 1 SBSP rows and adds an FOM column, and Joule's Table 1 is the preprint's Table 2. The wording differs in three places: the preprint's "economically unattractive" for the planar design is "uneconomical" in Joule's Summary; Joule keeps the sentence giving 6.4-9.7 and 9.5-14.3 times solar (PDF p.4) and adds, in its Context & Scale, that system costs fall 7-15% if the heliostat design delivers at six to nine times the 2050 cost of ground PV (PDF p.2); and Joule cites the exchange rates to its reference 48, where the preprint cited 46. The published title is "...for European-scale..."; this claim carried "in". WHICH NASA CASE, AND THE BASIS OF THE MULTIPLES (our arithmetic, 2026-10-09, from Table 1 and Table 2 of the preprint; the same figures are Joule's Table 2 and Table 1). Dividing Joule Table 2's annual fixed cost (fixed O&M included, marginal cost 0) by the hours of output at the stated capacity factor gives 0.561 and 1.463 EUR/kWh for the "baseline" rows, which are NASA's 2050 baseline LCOEs of 0.61 and 1.59 USD/kWh (CLM-0123) times 0.920 for both designs, and 0.031 and 0.075 EUR/kWh for the "2050" rows, which match NASA's combined-improvements 0.03 and 0.08 USD/kWh (CLM-0124), whose likelihood NASA did not assess. So the paper's "near-term (2020)" baseline is NASA's 2050 baseline result, and its "2050" case is NASA's favourable case. The paper states no euro price year; it takes exchange rates from its reference 48 (46 in the preprint). The common 0.920 is consistent with a currency conversion, but the year is not stated. The multiples of solar (6.4-9.7 and 9.5-14.3 times, Joule PDF p.4) are of annual fixed cost: they reproduce as Joule Table 2's 2050 annual fixed cost over Table 1's high and low solar figures (267.87 / 41.74 = 6.4, 267.87 / 27.68 = 9.7, 396.59 / 41.74 = 9.5, 396.59 / 27.68 = 14.3). The 14x, 9x and 6x thresholds are stated in Joule's text on the same basis, annual fixed cost against the 2050 solar PV cost (PDF p.6); Figure 4 itself was not read.

What it assumes

Launch cost per kg is NOT independently stated in this paper - CapEx is inherited from NASA OTPS's 2024 five-phase costing (SRC-012), then currency-converted to EUR; no separate EUR-per-kg-to-orbit figure or vintage is given here. Discount rate 3%; design life 30 years; capacity factor 99.7% (RD1) / 60% (RD2); system output approximately 2,029 MW (RD1) / approximately 2,022 MW (RD2), matching NASA OTPS's own two representative designs rather than an independently specified architecture.

Where it comes from

SRC-264 Assess space-based solar power for European-scale power system decarbonization. Joule vol. 9...
Joule Table 2 (PDF p.13, printed p.12): heliostat baseline CapEx 41,071.35 EUR/kW, FOM 2,806.24 and annual fixed cost 4,901.65 EUR/kW-year; planar baseline 62,335.91, 4,506.15 and 7,687.48; heliostat 2050 2,915.31, 119.15 and 267.87; planar 2050 3,701.30, 207.71 and 396.59; lifetime 30 years, discount rate 3%, capacity factor 99.7% (heliostat) and 60% (planar), output 2,028.79 and 2,021.95 MW, marginal cost 0. PDF p.2, Summary: the heliostat design "can cut total system costs by 7%-15%, offset up to 80% of wind and solar"; "The planar design, by contrast, is uneconomical at its forecast costs." PDF p.4: "In the 2020 scenarios, neither the heliostat design nor the planar design is selected in the optimized system". PDF p.6 (printed p.5): the designs turn complementary at about 14 and 9 times the 2050 solar PV cost (heliostat, planar) and surpass other technologies in generation at about 9 and 6 times. PDF p.12: CapEx and FOM are converted "into annual fixed costs using the annuitization approaches and exchange rates" of its reference 48. Table 1 (PDF p.6): solar 2050 annual fixed cost 27.68, 32.29 and 41.74 EUR/kW-year (low, medium, high).

Basis: EUR (2020 baseline and 2050-projected figures; both derived from NASA OTPS's 2024 cost data via currency conversion, not an independent European costing exercise)

Related records
Answers question
QST-021 not published in this release

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energyaperture.com/c/clm-0286

CLM-0286, Energy Aperture, as of 2025-09.

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Other published records linked to this one. A list, not a judgement.

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