Value chain · CLM-0187
In plain terms
The company's own 2024 analysis estimates that a single, non-reused Starship launch to low orbit would cost about $665 per kilogram, and projects (using two very different learning-rate scenarios) that this could fall to somewhere between about $12 and $614 per kilogram within ten years, with the company itself expecting something close to $500/kg.
The claim as recorded
Virtus Solis's own launch-cost analysis of SpaceX Starship/Super Heavy states "even with no reuse, the estimated launch cost is $665/kg to LEO," and separately applies Wright's Law learning curves to historic launch cost data, finding "an optimistic learning rate... that reduced costs by 91% for every doubling in launch mass" and "a conservative learning rate that reduced costs by 36% for every doubling of launch mass," projecting that within a decade (two mass doublings) launch costs could fall to between $12.15/kg and $614/kg, with the paper's own view that "trends support launch costs in the $500/kg range within a decade."
Scope and limits
The $12.15/kg end of the range is a lower bound from an "optimistic" (91% cost reduction per doubling) scenario that the paper itself treats as a bound rather than a central estimate, not a claimed achievable near-term price - treating it as a forecast cost would overstate confidence.
What it assumes
Wright's Law (cost as a power-law function of cumulative production/launch mass) is a valid extrapolation method for launch costs; Starship achieves the launch cadence needed to double cumulative launch mass roughly twice within ten years.
Where it comes from
"even with no reuse, the estimated launch cost is $665/kg to LEO." "An optimistic learning rate was found that reduced costs by 91% for every doubling in launch mass. A conservative learning rate that reduced costs by 36% for every doubling of launch mass... cumulative launch mass will have doubled twice yielding expected launch costs between $12.15/kg and $614/kg. The trends support launch costs in the $500/kg range within a decade." (PDF p.14-16: $665/kg at p.14, learning rates at p.15, $12.15-$614/kg and $500/kg at p.16; no printed folio in the text layer).
Basis: USD, 2024 vintage, per kg to LEO (no-reuse case) and per kg forecast for a 10-year horizon
Related records
- Answers question
- QST-003 not published in this release
Cite this
energyaperture.com/c/clm-0187
CLM-0187, Energy Aperture, as of 2024.
Connected records
Other published records linked to this one. A list, not a judgement.
- Also from SRC-013
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