Value chain · CLM-1056
In plain terms
Measured in expected deaths per year for a big power station's worth of electricity, the programme found coal far the worst and everything else, including space solar, about equal within the error bars; space solar's risk sat in building it, not running it, and its open questions were long-term microwave exposure and a rocket coming down on a city.
The claim as recorded
The programme's health-and-safety comparison is in expected fatalities per year per 1000 MW of average generation over a 30-year plant life (and work days lost), with severity 1 above 0.1, 2 from 0.01 to 0.1, 3 below, and catastrophic events (over 1,000 deaths) kept out of the totals; the April 1980 preliminary gave point values coal 5.84, terrestrial PV 1.46, fission with reprocessing 0.65, SPS 0.31, fusion 0.004, with the SPS and fusion carrying the most unquantifiable issues (four each); the December 1980 final added the LMFBR and a rooftop PV, dropped reprocessing, added direct and indirect component manufacture from input-output matrices ("an additional indirect output in other industries in the range of 0.5-0.9 units"), and gave ranges: coal 6.6-79 (public air pollution 4.6-75 at a 60 per cent confidence level, "a range including zero" at 90 per cent), rooftop PV 1.92-4.4, LWR 0.26-1.4, LMFBR 0.24-1.1, central PV 0.43-0.73, SPS 0.26-0.67 (manufacture and construction 0.19-0.55, operation and maintenance 0.07-0.12, public "unknown or negligible"), fusion 0.22-0.44; it concludes that coal "has the largest overall quantified risk", that "quantified risks from the remaining technologies (fission, fusion, SPS, and centralized terrestrial photovoltaic) are comparable within the range of quantified uncertainty", that "unique unquantified issues of concern also exist for the SPS in relation to the use of microwave transmission of energy and extensive space travel" (chronic low-level microwave exposure of large populations, a space vehicle crash into an urban area, HLLV emissions), and that in 2000-2020 scenarios the SPS case starts higher on occupational risk and is "as low or lower" by 2020, while "the unquantified risks to the public ... restrict the delineation of definitive conclusions".
Evidence behind this: T3-the programme's two health-and-safety volumes: literature risk factors applied per 1000 MW-yr, point values in the preliminary and ranges in the final.
Scope and limits
THE AUTHORS CONCEDE A REVIEWER'S CALL FOR "a more thorough and consistent evaluation and documentation of the range of published data and uncertainties" AND DEFER IT TO "a future, as yet unplanned, follow-up study"; catastrophic events are excluded from every total; the coal public figure spans 16x on a confidence choice. 1980 US data throughout; no radiation term for the SPS ("U"). Table A.3 (PDF 66, printed 59) annualised over 30 years reproduces Table 1's SPS manufacture-and-construction range exactly ((2.68 + 2.38 + 0.72)/30 = 0.19 and (8.05 + 7.15 + 1.18)/30 = 0.55); fusion's two rows sum to 0.19-0.44 against its printed total of 0.22-0.44, a source-internal slip not carried here.
What it assumes
US 1970s industrial incidence rates applied to space and solar manufacture that "have no historical basis"; a 90 per cent SPS load factor.
Where it comes from
ER-0053 PDF p.9 normalised: "expected deaths per year associated with 1,000 MW of electricity generation averaged over a 30-year plant lifetime"; Table 1 image read: "0.65(3) 5.84(2) 1.46(2) 0.31(4) 0.004(4)"; "systems in a more advanced stage of development generally exhibit higher impact or risk levels". PDF p.10 normalised: "the SPS and fusion systems, which have the lowest level of quantifiable impacts, have the largest number of unquantifiable issues". PDF p.18 normalised: severity thresholds. PDF p.17 normalised: catastrophic definition. ER-0091 PDF p.3 normalised: the preface's list of changes. PDF p.5 Table 1 image read: "0.26-1.4 6.6-79 0.24-1.1 0.43-0.73 1.92-4.4 0.26-0.67 0.22-0.44". PDF p.6 normalised: "0.5-0.9 units"; Table 2 the SPS-only issues. PDF p.60 normalised: "air pollutants (4.6-75 fatalities/1000 MW-yr)"; "a similar procedure using 90% confidence levels for air pollutant dose-response gives a range including zero impacts". PDF p.62 normalised: the three conclusion sentences. PDF p.7 normalised: "as low or lower than for the non-SPS scenario"; "restrict the delineation of definitive conclusions". PDF p.66 Table A.3 image read: SPS component production direct 2.68-8.05, indirect 2.38-7.15 fatalities per 1000 MW-yr of capacity built.
Basis: literature risk factors; 1000 MW average generation over a 30-year life; input-output matrices for indirect manufacture in the final
Related records
- Answers question
- QST-008 not published in this release
Cite this
energyaperture.com/c/clm-1056
CLM-1056, Energy Aperture, as of 1980-04 to 1980-12.
Connected records
Other published records linked to this one. A list, not a judgement.
- Also from SRC-525
- CLM-1057The safety study's own picture of the system: about $13 billion of hardware per satellite in 1978 money, 640 people in orbit for six months...
- Also from SRC-536
- CLM-1057The safety study's own picture of the system: about $13 billion of hardware per satellite in 1978 money, 640 people in orbit for six months...