Value chain · CLM-1035
In plain terms
In 1981 NASA priced a satellite at 11.5 billion 1977 dollars and the road to the first one at 102 billion, said it was not an official figure, and built the transport line on a launch price that works out at about 24 of those dollars per kilogram to orbit.
The claim as recorded
NASA's 1981 cost estimate for the silicon reference system, in 1977 dollars for a 60-satellite 300 GW programme, is $102 billion through the first operational unit and $11.5 billion per subsequent 5 GW unit ($2,300/kW): satellite $5.0 billion, transportation $2.8 billion, ground receiving station $2.2 billion, space construction $1.1 billion and programme management $0.4 billion. The transportation figure rests on a heavy-lift launch vehicle at $10.1 million per flight over 11,606 flights, and the document states that "there is no official U.S. Government cost estimate for an SPS".
Evidence behind this: T3-programme office estimate, which states of itself that it is not an official figure.
Scope and limits
1977 DOLLARS, SILICON OPTION ONLY, BOEING PHASE II DATA WITH NASA JSC IN-HOUSE ESTIMATES; a parametric cost model on aircraft data at a learning exponent of 0.85. The $24 per kg is derived here from a payload the document does not state on the pages read (Table IX, PDF p.124, was not rendered). The document does state the payload, on PDF p.137 (printed 130): "The HLLV has a gross payload of 424 M.T. and a net payload of 374 M.T.", so the $10.1 million flight is $24 per kg gross and $27 per kg net; and Table VI's rectenna sub-items (240 + 304 + 929 + 268 + 61 + 674) sum to 2,476 against the printed subtotal 2,208, the difference being the 268 distribution-buses line, the $2.2 billion here being the printed subtotal that the page's 11,547 total uses.
What it assumes
No assumptions are recorded against this claim.
Where it comes from
PDF p.8, raw: "cost estimate in 1977 dollars", "60-satellite program (300 GW)", "$2,300/kW"; normalised: "$102 billion and subsequent units are estimated to cost $11.5 billion each". PDF p.9, raw: "no official U.S. Government cost estimate"; "All cost figures shown in this document are in 1977 dollars". PDF p.18, raw: "11 547" (the average production unit, $ million). PDF p.135, raw: "10.1 million", "11 606", "2 802". Arithmetic on the stated figures: $10.1 million over a 424 t payload (SRC-085; CLM-1023) is about $24 per kg to LEO in 1977 dollars.
Basis: 1977 USD; 60 satellites, 300 GW, 30 years
Related records
- Answers question
- QST-037 not published in this release
Cite this
energyaperture.com/c/clm-1035
CLM-1035, Energy Aperture, as of 1981.