Value chain · CLM-0752
In plain terms
ESA's 2026 report says that nothing naturally removes objects from geostationary orbit the way the atmosphere slowly clears low orbit, so a retiring satellite there has to be deliberately moved out and kept out for at least a century.
The claim as recorded
ESA's Annual Space Environment Report, Issue 10.0 dated 1 May 2026, states that unlike in LEO no natural sink mechanism is available for the GEO protected region by which objects could leave, that solar radiation pressure on the objects also makes long-term predictions subject to non-negligible uncertainties, and that a payload or rocket body operating in the GEO protected region shall be manoeuvred in a controlled manner during disposal to an orbit lying entirely outside that region, with at least one of two conditions met: the IADC perigee-raise formula with eccentricity below 0.003, or a perigee high enough that long-term perturbation forces do not cause the payload to enter the GEO protected region within 100 years.
Scope and limits
The "shall" is ESA's own reporting language describing the mitigation requirement it measures against, not a statement that any binding instrument imposes it on any operator; the underlying IADC guidance is non-compulsory (CLM-0756). The claim is about the absence of a removal mechanism, not about collision probability, and the register holds no GEO collision-probability figure for any structure. The 100-year criterion is a modelling horizon and the same page states that long-term clearance predictions for rocket bodies are "only predictable as a stochastic estimate".
What it assumes
No assumptions are recorded against this claim.
Where it comes from
p.135, verbatim: "Unlike in LEO, no natural sink mechanism is available for the GEO protected region by which objects could leave. The solar radiation pressure on the objects will also make long term predictions subject to non-negligible uncertainties." Same page, verbatim: "A payload or rocket body operating in the GEO Protected Region, with either a permanent or periodic presence, shall be manoeuvred in a controlled manner during the disposal phase to an orbit that lies entirely outside the GEO Protected Region." Second condition, same page, verbatim: "The orbit has a perigee altitude sufficiently above the geostationary altitude that long-term perturbation forces do not cause the payload to enter the GEO Protected Region within 100 years."
Basis: qualitative statement of orbital mechanics; disposal conditions
Related records
- Answers question
- QST-011 not published in this release
Cite this
energyaperture.com/c/clm-0752
CLM-0752, Energy Aperture, as of 2026-05-01.
Connected records
Other published records linked to this one. A list, not a judgement.
- Also from SRC-226
- CLM-0750The 2020 edition of the international debris guidelines says a retiring geostationary satellite should climb at least 235 km above its...CLM-0751Working the international disposal formula through by hand shows that for a very large and very light satellite the extra height it must...CLM-0753ESA's 2026 report says the world is not clearing satellites out of orbit well enough, that even the usual 90 per cent success target would...CLM-0754ESA's 2026 report projects that collisions between existing pieces of debris will keep making more debris in low Earth orbit even if...CLM-0756The international space debris guidelines are advice, not law: ESA's own report says they are a starting point for national rules and...CLM-1183ESA's 2026 report counts about 960 catalogued objects in geostationary orbit at the end of 2025, about 800 of them satellites, but nearly...CLM-1188Over the past ten years, almost every satellite retiring from the geostationary belt has tried to move itself out of the way as the debris...