Value chain · CLM-0450
In plain terms
An economic model from about 2011 of a small, first-of-a-kind demonstration solar power satellite found its electricity would cost over 23 USD per kilowatt-hour if privately financed, against roughly 1 USD per kilowatt-hour that the source uses for comparison (generator power at US forward military bases, where its own estimates run from about 0.9 to 27 USD); only full government funding of both development and hardware brought the price down to 0.15 USD per kilowatt-hour, which the authors say may then be competitive on optimistic ground-system costs, in a case they judge unlikely.
The claim as recorded
SpaceWorks' CABAM2.1 financial model of a conceptual 5 MW SSP "First Revenue Satellite" (FRS), based on a 59.4 metric-tonne-to-LEO Naval Research Lab concept launched on 6 SpaceX Falcon 9 flights at 59.5 million USD each (5,694 USD/kg Earth-to-orbit, 2014 cost-year basis), with non-recurring cost of 78,396 USD/kg DDT&E plus 38,859 USD/kg acquisition (117,255 USD/kg total, FY2010 dollars, in-space dry mass basis), found a break-even electricity price of 23.18 USD/kWh with no government contribution, falling to 7.18 USD/kWh if government funds 100% of DDT&E (3,072 million USD) and to 0.15 USD/kWh if government also funds 100% of acquisition (4,651 million USD), against a comparator the source puts at about 1 USD/kWh for fuel-fired generator power at US military forward operating bases (one cited statement says "over $1 per kilowatt hour"; the source's own table of estimates runs from 0.92 to 26.7 USD/kWh).
Scope and limits
This is a preliminary, NAFCOM-based parametric (weight-based cost-estimating-relationship) cost estimate for a single one-off demonstrator, explicitly flagged by the authors as conservative and possibly needing revision; the authors state potential system modularity "may reduce the specific cost ($/kg) down by an order of magnitude" - i.e. these are FOAK, not NOAK, costs and should not be read as representative of a mature or mass-produced SBSP fleet. The 2014 launch-cost vintage (Falcon 9 at $59.5M/launch) reflects pricing assumptions from shortly after Falcon 9's debut and is now over a decade stale; it does not reflect later, lower realised or advertised launch prices. The $1/kWh comparator is a fully encumbered (fuel-plus-security-plus-transport) niche military price, not a grid or utility-scale baseload price, so the "competitive" framing in the 100%-subsidy scenario is not a like-for-like comparison against ordinary grid electricity.
What it assumes
Technical design (NRL 5 MW concept) taken from a third-party source, not the authors' own; 100% duty cycle and 100% efficiency to grid assumed (no downtime, no transmission loss modelled); 10-year debt terms at 4% nominal interest; no tax credits; no refurbishment over a 10-year operating life; government contribution scenarios are illustrative sensitivity cases, not funding commitments; in-space LEO-to-GEO transport is costed at "$ 0.00 /kg" (Table 8, p.5), so the 5,694 USD/kg covers launch to LEO only.
Where it comes from
p.4-5: "The Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX) Falcon 9 launch vehicle is used in a six-launch architecture... Cost for each Falcon 9 launch was assumed to be US$59.5M"; "DDT&E cost per kg (in-space dry mass) equals $78,396/kg, acquisition cost per kg (in-space dry mass) equals $38,859/kg, and DDTE + Acquisition Cost per kg (in-space dry mass) equals $117,255/kg"; Table 8: "Earth-to-Orbit $ 5,694 /kg" under "Cost Structure: Year of Cost = 2014"; Table 9: "No Contribution... $23.18/kWh", "100% DDT&E... $7.18/kWh", "100% DDT&E 100% Acquisition... $0.15/kWh". Comparator, p.3: "Specific, researched values for energy are in the US$1/kWh range"; NSSO cited as stating "the DoD currently spends over $1 per kilowatt hour for electrical power delivered to troops in forward military bases in war regions."; Table 1 point estimates "$0.92 / kWh" (Iraq), "$1.16 / kWh" (Afghanistan), "$13.3 / kWh" (Heliosat), "$26.7 / kWh" (Tauri Group), "$1.05 / kWh" (Camp Lemonnier). p.6 summary: "about $7/kWhr in output price versus ~$1/kWhr for some potential sample niche markets." Verified: rendered PDF page 5 as PNG at 3.5x zoom and visually confirmed all dollar figures and the 15% discount rate / 20% cost-of-equity percentages render correctly (matches text extraction, no dropped characters); cross-checked the $78,396/kg and $38,859/kg figures arithmetically from Table 7 (Total DDT&E $3,109.1M minus Ground System $20.0M = $3,089.1M space-segment DDT&E; $3,089.1M / 39,404 kg = $78,396/kg; Total Acquisition $1,546.2M minus Ground System $15.0M = $1,531.2M; $1,531.2M / 39,404 kg = $38,860/kg) - both reconcile to the stated figures within rounding.
Basis: Two distinct cost-year bases used by the source: (a) DDT&E and acquisition cost-per-kg figures are stated "in $M, FY2010" (Table 7); (b) the Earth-to-orbit launch cost of 5,694 USD/kg and the 59.5 million USD per-launch Falcon 9 price are given under a table header "Cost Structure: Year of Cost = 2014" (Table 8). All figures nominal USD; no inflation adjustment method stated for reconciling the two bases. Cost-per-kg figures are basis in-space dry mass (39,404 kg, i.e. total 59,404 kg less 20,000 kg propellant). Output "price" figures are USD per kWh delivered, break-even basis (price needed to hit a 15% discount rate / 20% cost of equity), not a market-observed price.
Related records
- Answers question
- QST-037 not published in this release
- Supersedes
- CLM-0197 not published in this release
Cite this
energyaperture.com/c/clm-0450
CLM-0450, Energy Aperture, as of 2011.