Value chain · CLM-0377
In plain terms
Before using a shortcut method to work out how much changing the assumed investment-return rate and satellite lifespan would move each study's cost figure, this calculation checked the shortcut against two real answers it could look up. It matched closely (within about 4%) for a small change, but was off by 10 to 30% for a bigger change, which means the shortcut method is good enough to show the direction and rough size of an effect, but not precise enough to trust its last few percent.
The claim as recorded
The Capital Recovery Factor (CRF) ratio method used to rescale LCOE for discount rate and asset life where no bottom-up model exists was checked against two real data points: Frazer-Nash's own stated 15-year-life sensitivity (SRC-021 Table 4), where it predicts GBP52.9/MWh against the source's own GBP50.9/MWh (+4.0% error); and the bottom-up NASA OTPS rebuild in the register at 20-year life and 3%/10% discount rate, where it over-predicts the full rebuild by +22.0%/+29.3% (RD1) and +21.6%/+9.4% (RD2).
Scope and limits
Wherever a bottom-up model exists (NASA OTPS RD1/RD2), this restatement uses the full rebuild, not this approximation, for exactly this reason. The approximation was applied to Frazer-Nash BEIS, Frazer-Nash ESA, NASA's multi-variable sensitivity, and all three Caltech tiers, where no bottom-up model is available; those figures carry roughly +/-25-30% additional uncertainty beyond what is stated for their other parameters.
What it assumes
The CRF method treats the entire reported LCOE as a pure capital annuity with no separately-scaling opex or fuel term; SBSP has no fuel cost, which makes this closer to correct than it would be for most terrestrial generation, but it is still an approximation, not an identity.
Where it comes from
This is the project's own working, shown in full:
restate-lcoe.py trace, Section 3 (Check A) and Section 4 (Check B, cross-check paragraph).
Basis: methodological validation, not a currency-denominated claim
Related records
- Answers question
- QST-004 not published in this release
Cite this
energyaperture.com/c/clm-0377
CLM-0377, Energy Aperture, as of 2026-09.