Value chain · CLM-0370
In plain terms
Converting the UK government's 2021 space solar power cost estimate onto the same money-year, same investment-return and same asset-life basis as the other studies in this comparison gives about 21 to 49 pounds per megawatt-hour, depending on which return rate is used.
The claim as recorded
Restating Frazer-Nash/BEIS 2021's CASSIOPeiA FOAK LCOE (GBP66.3/MWh p50, 2018 prices, 20% hurdle, 30yr life) to 2024 GBP, 20-year life gives GBP28.1/MWh at 3% real discount rate and GBP49.1/MWh at 10% real discount rate; the NOAK (5th unit) figure (GBP49.7/MWh native) restates to GBP21.1/MWh at 3% and GBP36.8/MWh at 10%.
Scope and limits
Single-parameter rescaling of a published headline figure, not a re-derivation of Frazer-Nash's underlying model; the probabilistic launch-cost distribution behind the native figure could not itself be re-run at the new basis.
What it assumes
CRF-ratio rescaling treats the whole reported LCOE as a pure capital annuity (validated to +4% error against Frazer-Nash's own 15-year-life sensitivity, restate-lcoe.py Section 3); UK CPI annual rates 2019-2024 are ASSUMED/recalled, not freshly fetched.
Where it comes from
This is the project's own working, shown in full:
restate-lcoe.py trace, CLM-0170-restate-FOAK and CLM-0171-restate-NOAK sections: GBP2018 66.30 x UK CPI mult 1.2658 = GBP2024 83.92; x CRF ratio 0.3347 (3%,20yr) = 28.1; x CRF ratio 0.5848 (10%,20yr) = 49.1.
Basis: GBP2024, 20-year asset life, 3% and 10% real discount rate
Related records
- Answers question
- QST-004 not published in this release
Cite this
energyaperture.com/c/clm-0370
CLM-0370, Energy Aperture, as of 2026-09.